Fortune reported that last Tuesday there was a Nasdaq ad in the Wall Street Journal promoting Tesla which included the following excerpt:
“Tesla builds highway-capable, zero-emission electric vehicles. No hybrids. No hydrogen. No hype.”
The Tesla Motors website contains similar language.
Since Tesla CEO Elon Musk took a swipe at hydrogen, I am issuing the following challenge to back up my belief that both Tesla and plug-in battery cars in general are a lot of hype:
Elon, I want to bet you $1000 that Tesla stock will be in the single digits (i.e. $9.99 per share or less) a year from now on July 5, 2011.
You can accept this bet by e-mailing me at gblencoe (at) hydrogendiscoveries (dot) com.
I am posting this before the Nasdaq market opens on Tuesday, July 6th. The Tesla stock price was $19.20 per share at the end of the day on Friday. Basically, I am willing to bet that a year from now the Tesla stock price will be worth just above half (or less than that amount) of what it is today.
I believe the Nissan LEAF will likely contribute to a decline in the Tesla stock price. Once a lot of people get to experience the real-world driving range of the Nissan LEAF beginning later this year, I think the range anxiety issue (and the other problems with plug-in battery cars) will cause mainstream consumers to be a lot less confident in plug-in battery cars than they are today.
There are many people in the auto industry who are questioning plug-in battery cars. For example, I highly recommend reading the following article.
While I am aware that Toyota has invested $50 million in Tesla, I think this was mainly a PR move considering the two companies now don’t seem to have a very close relationship.
I want to be very clear that I respect and admire Elon Musk and all of the other Tesla employees for what they have done. Considering how extremely difficult it is to break into the auto industry (“nearly impossible” might be the best description), I think it is a huge accomplishment that Tesla has sold over 1000 cars.
Furthermore, I applaud Elon Musk and the other Tesla employees for trying to help solve the oil crisis which I believe is the greatest problem that mankind has ever faced.
However, while I believe that advocates of plug-in battery cars (including those involved with Tesla) have good intentions, I think they are backing the wrong technology.
I believe hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (which will arrive at dealerships in 2015) are the solution to the oil crisis. To see how much progress has been made with the technology, I highly recommend reading the following article.
Moreover, I think the hydrogen fueling stations should be financed by consumers through cooperatives which would not involve the U.S. federal government or the oil companies. Details on how this could be done in Southern California can be found here.
However, since Elon Musk is unlikely to become an advocate of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles any time soon, the one question that needs to be asked right now is:
Does he believe enough in his company and plug-in battery cars to take the bet?
Related posts:
Comments on this entry are closed.