Joe,
As I’m sure you know, tomorrow is the two-year anniversary of our bet on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
Since the spirit of the bet was to raise awareness of the energy problem and encourage people to discuss and debate these issues, I want to give you an update on all of the progress that has been made with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
Bet on TreeHugger
For those who have not heard about this, here is the bet which was posted on TreeHugger on October 20, 2007:
“The bet is as follows:
Greg Blencoe wins if hydrogen fuel cell vehicles hit 1% of new sales of the typically-defined car and light truck market in the U.S. during 2015 or any year before. Joseph Romm wins if it is 2016 or any year after.
If Joseph Romm wins, Greg Blencoe agrees to wear a t-shirt (and take pictures with the media) that has Romm’s website on it and says:
‘Joseph Romm was right about hydrogen’
If Greg Blencoe wins, Joseph Romm agrees to wear a t-shirt (and take pictures with the media) that says:
‘I was wrong about hydrogen’
Furthermore, if Joseph Romm wins, Greg Blencoe also agrees to hand over $1000 to him. If Greg Blencoe wins, Joseph Romm agrees to donate the same amount to an environmental organization that fights global warming.
The spirit of this bet is to raise more awareness of all of the possible solutions to global warming and the energy problem beginning now. When people are discussing and debating the solutions, the best technologies will emerge and positive change will come sooner than later.”
What is at stake with the oil crisis
I truly believe that the oil crisis is the greatest problem humanity has ever faced. Peak oil is looming which means that oil prices are almost certain to go much, much higher over the next 5-10 years. This is a serious threat to the global economy. In the U.S. alone, there are around 250 million registered passenger vehicles and 170,000 gasoline stations that will have to replaced in a relatively short period of time.
Furthermore, energy wars will likely be fought if the right energy strategy is not pursued. These conflicts could result in the death of many, many thousands and perhaps millions of people from the U.S. and around the world.
Moreover, oil has very serious environmental consequences.
Basically, our entire way of life is at risk.
Supporting technologies that are not viable = Supporting the status quo
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are simply far superior to battery-only vehicles when it comes to driving range, fueling time, and trunk/passenger space. While thousands of people will certainly buy battery-only vehicles, mainstream consumers will simply not make huge compromises in all of these areas.
Furthermore, the Toyota Prius represents a far better value for mainstream consumers than plug-in hybrid vehicles which are much more expensive.
Since plug-in battery vehicles are not viable for mainstream consumers, the result of your support of plug-in battery vehicles is that the status quo is maintained. You are perpetuating all of the problems with oil that were mentioned above.
The truth about the status of hydrogen fuel cell cars
In a post on October 6, 2009, you made the following statement:
“Hydrogen cars will not be practical or a cost-effective climate strategy in your lifetime.”
Considering that hydrogen fuel cell cars will be arriving at dealerships in 2015 (see the two articles below for lots of evidence of this), your statement is absolutely shameful and outrageous.
WHAT IS YOUR RESPONSE TO ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE FROM CREDIBLE SOURCES?
IF YOU DO NOT HAVE A GOOD ANSWER TO THIS QUESTION, IT IS TIME FOR YOU TO ADMIT THAT YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT HYDROGEN FUEL CELL VEHICLES.
2. 7 reasons to love Toyota hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
Here are 7 reasons to love Toyota hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (which the company started developing in-house back in 1992 when I was a senior in high school):
1. 431-mile real-world driving range with Toyota FCHV-adv (mid-size SUV) hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (See the following YouTube video)
2. 68.3 real-world miles per kilogram fuel economy with Toyota FCHV-adv (See the following YouTube video)
3. Ability to operate in temperatures as low as minus 35 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 37 degrees Celsius)
4. Irv Miller, TMS group vice president, environmental and public affairs, made the following comment on August 6th:
“In 2015, our plan is to bring to market a reliable and durable fuel cell vehicle with exceptional fuel economy and zero emissions, at an affordable price.”
5. Masatami Takimoto, a Toyota executive vice president and board member, made the following comment about hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in January at the North American International Auto Show:
“By 2015, we will have a full-fledged commercialization effort.”
6. The Toyota FCHV-adv (Highlander) hydrogen fuel cell vehicle has the same trunk and passenger space as the gasoline-powered version.
Click on the following link to see a picture of the trunk in the Toyota FCHV-adv hydrogen fuel cell vehicle.
7. Here is a comment made by Justin Ward, advanced powertrain program manager-Toyota Technical Center, in a Ward’s Automotive article (subscription required) that was published on July 16th:
“We have some confidence the vehicle released around 2015 is going to have costs that are going to be shocking for most of the people in the industry. They are going to be very surprised we were able to achieve such an impressive cost reduction.”
[Photo credit: gwire]
If you enjoyed this post, make sure you subscribe to my RSS feed!Related posts:
- Critics of hydrogen fuel cell cars will join the following long list of “experts” throughout history who were completely wrong
- Shocking statistic: Toyota spends almost $1 million PER HOUR on R&D
- 5 responses to energy efficiency argument against hydrogen fuel cell cars (Don’t be tricked by plug-in battery car advocates!)
{ 8 comments }
The writer doesn’t get it. The electric transportation system is here. The hydrogen system is not. And at best it would be carried by trucks to stations.
The nay sayers on electric don’t understand the possibilities, considering what is already being done in the lab both with batteries and super capacitors. If hydrogen is the fuel of the future, it will be used to generate electricity.
David,
Thanks for the comment.
While the infrastructure is in place for people with garages (around 50% of the population) to charge their plug-in vehicles now, the gasoline infrastructure is also in place.
I think the Toyota Prius is a far better value for mainstream consumers than the Nissan Leaf or the Chevy Volt.
Regarding the Nissan Leaf, please read the following article which is titled “Battery cars with maximum 100-mile driving range will not be acceptable to mainstream consumers.”
http://www.h2carblog.com/?p=68
Furthermore, the Chevy Volt will cost around $40,000 and the Prius starts at around $22,000. Do you really think mainstream consumers will choose the Volt over the Prius?
Regarding battery developments, Toyota came out with the first Prius (which uses batteries) in 1997 in Japan. Moreover, the company spends an average of nearly $1 million PER HOUR on research and development of future technologies which includes batteries. And Toyota is not very optimistic about plug-in battery vehicles. I think this says a lot.
On the other hand, Toyota hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be able to meet all mainstream consumer needs in 2015 when the cars will arrive at dealerships.
However, as you mentioned, the hydrogen fueling infrastructure needs to be built. Here are “Eight ways to finance the initial hydrogen fueling stations.”
http://www.h2carblog.com/?p=43
Hi Grag,
Best wishes for the blog-moving and the bet with Joe Romm.
I believe we will see by 2015 a total of 164060 FCV on the US roads, following these official (BTS) numbers
http://www.bts.gov/publications/pocket_guide_to_transportation/2009/html/figure_05_10.html
–> 1% of 8.5+7.8 million vehicles in 2008.
Right now it is truly astonishing how the people might be confused with, not in order of importance:
- rising oil prices and newly-found oilfields,
- rising commodities and unemployment,
- electric cars and relative infrastructure hope,
- the latest hybrids (Insight and Prius) reality to save gas,
- the biofuel delusion still advancing
- the hidden hydrogen revolution, as the announcements of carmakers are not in the top headlines.
I feel a sense of confusion when rising electricity or fuel consumption is presenteed as “good new”…
True though, the FACT that in 5 years from now w ewill be able to purchase a H2FC vehicle is something close to a sublime pleasure; the dream of Geoffrey Ballard coming true: a man who started working on Lithiun batteries! Great paradox, isn’t it?
As example of hiding H2:
Article on FC Clarity on page 45 of La Repubblica, last monday; where it says, ” car on sale by 2015…100kW FCV with 67kg FC stack of 52 liters volume…”
This is something which should be on the cover of major Motor reviews: a 50 liters box wighting 67kg able to give 100kW. The most fantastic power density one could imagine.
1/20 of it giving enough to power a house!
Plug-in battey advocates aren’t laughing any more…
Good luck to all of us.
Ciao
Giancarlo
Hi Giancarlo,
Thanks for the comment. I really appreciate the kind words.
I’m very excited about the new blog. I hope you like it. And thanks for wishing me good luck with the bet!
Considering the importance of this issue, I completely agree that it is astonishing that people do not understand a lot more about the oil crisis and alternative fuel technologies.
Moreover, I like how you called what is happening “the hidden hydrogen revolution.” This is SO TRUE!
I definitely think your prediction of 164,060 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on the road in the U.S. in 2015 is much closer to what it will be than the very low numbers that nearly everybody is predicting. Like you said, this number would be greater than the 1% of new car sales in the bet.
If oil prices go really high in the 2012 to 2014 time frame, I think new car sales might go way down. Most people will instead decide to wait a couple of years to buy a new hydrogen fuel cell car.
It is indeed so exciting to think that we will be able to purchase a hydrogen fuel cell car in just five years. That is not very far away!
Furthermore, I had no idea until you just told me that Geoffrey Ballard started working on lithium batteries before fuel cells. That’s VERY ironic indeed!
By the way, Jim Motavalli wrote about my bet with Joseph Romm today in a New York Times blog post. Here is the link in case you want to check it out:
http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/20/betting-against-hydrogen/
Thanks again for posting the comment. I hope to see you around here a lot. And I hope all is well in Italy!
Ciao,
Greg
The 187 million in H2car funding should all go to building filling stations for Hydrogen.
Pick a few cities and saturate them…don’t spread the money out.
Maybe cover LA, Portland, Seattle.
The cars already exist…
John,
I COMPLETELY agree that the focus now should be on building the hydrogen fueling stations.
Toyota, Honda, Daimler, Hyundai, etc. are taking care of the hydrogen fuel cell cars on their own. But the government can help out by building the initial hydrogen fueling stations.
I thought I’d add a comment here. In 1948 I converted an engine for hydrogen use. I generated my own hydrogen not HHO real hydrogen. I could only generate enough to let the engine run for three minutes. I was 14 years old. I quickly learned that I had to water inject it to keep from burning out the valves. I have been a hydrogen advocate ever since. I figure if a 14-year-old can make an engine run on hydrogen. It is not technology that has stopped hydrogen development in this country. Huge oil companys (MONEY) are part of the problem but not all of it.
The public perception of my engine was it was very dangerous. This was based on the Hindenburg disaster. I hear the same comment being made today.
I was talking to a 15-year-old and asked her what she thought of hydrogen, her answer was. “It’s too dangerous”. I asked her where she had learned that. She knew all about the Hindenburg. Several other interviews had the same result. They are still teaching it in schools.
I hope time will overcome this. I see the same thing being talked about in articles I have read about hydrogen.
I see the standing bet that going on here. I believe, if the Cap and Trade bill passes the Senate. It will set hydrogen back a hundred years.
Who is going to want hydrogen to replace hydrocarbons? Especially when they have just spent millions of dollars to purchase carbon credits?
It has already passed the House of Representatives and the only thing stopping the Senate from voting on it is the health-care bill.
For anyone reading this, that is not familiar with carbon credits. I recommend that you go to the following link and download a copy. It is free and very informative.
http://www.greenchipstocks.com/aqx_p/15327?OVRAW=cap%20and%20trade%20bill%20senate%20status&OVKEY=cap%20trade%20bill&OVMTC=advanced&OVADID=48038617522&OVKWID=236907240522
you may also like to check out my blog
http://vikingbobswords.blogspot.com/2009/10/hydrogen-as-new-energy-standard.html
http://vikingbobswords.blogspot.com/2009/08/energy-independence-step-one.html
http://vikingbobswords.blogspot.com/2009/08/truth-about-hydrogen.html
Check out the Stirling engine it is a contender. It does not require a fuel cell. Anything that produces heat will make it go, including solar power.
http://www.energysolutionscenter.org/distgen/AppGuide/Manf/STMPower.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_engine
Viking Bob
Viking Bob,
Thanks for the comment.
Here is a post from the previous version of the blog about the Hindenburg:
http://hydrogendiscoveries.wordpress.com/2008/04/09/hydrogen-fact-2-the-hindenburg-disaster-was-not-caused-by-hydrogen/
And here is a post about how hydrogen cars are safe:
http://www.h2carblog.com/?p=261
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